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Grain Futures Hold Ground Overnight

Grain Express

/ by BlueLineFutures | Leave a comment

Grain markets have been weaker as of late but were able to hold their ground overnight. Are we at price levels that entice bargain buying?

Grain markets were lower as the lack of new news has kept buyers at bay.  Livestock markets came under pressure on the back of long liquidation from funds.  In the outside markets, it was new all-time highs for the S&P and NASDAQ. 

Corn


Wednesday’s Recap
Wednesday’s Corn market was mostly lower with the March contract dropping by 2’2 to 430’0, a one week low. Overall, a light 244,857 contracts were traded, with 138,433 done in March. Combined open interest increased by 441 (0.0288%), with March lower by 3,795, or 0.48%, to 791,665.

Technicals
Corn futures drifted lower yesterday which carried over into some weakness overnight. Trendline support from the contract low in August is being tested and is so far holding. The Bulls will want to defend our support pocket from 425 1/2-427 1/2 to keep that intact. A failure there could spark technical pressure. On the flipside, trendline resistance is converging with trendline support as the trading ranges narrow. It’s possible the market is building up energy for a bigger directional move once technicals (support or resistance) are broken.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 441 3/4-442 1/4***, 447 3/4****
Support:425 1/2-427 1/2***, 423 1/4*, 414-416 3/4****

Fundamental Notes
Weekly Export Sales Estimates: 750,000 – 1,500,000 MT for 2024/2025. 0-200,000 for 2025/2026.

Popular Options
Option trading centered around the March 455 calls with 3,465 traded and the Dec ZC1 430 puts with volume of 6,194. Option open interest is greatest for the March 450 calls at 43,901, and the March 420 puts at 32,291.

Volatility Update
Implied Volatility finished the day slightly lower with CVL off 0.034, to settle at a twelve year low of 15.01. Gaining 0.0412%, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) closed at 17.26%. The CVL Skew was sharply higher, gaining 0.14 to close at 0.43.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 12.2.24)

Below is a look at historical price averages for March corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). Historically, December has been a favorable month for prices. Whether or not that stays on trend this year or not is still to be seen.

Commitment of Traders Update

(Updated on 12.3.24)

Monday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of nearly 23k futures contracts, shrinking their net long position to 83,902.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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