In a shortened holiday week, all eyes will be on Thursday’s quarterly stocks and prospective planting report.
Watch us on RFD-TV, today at 9:45am CT!
Oliver Sloup joined Michelle Rook of Ag Day TV on Friday afternoon to discuss his take on the recent action in the grain and livestock markets.
Corn
Technicals (May)
May corn futures are starting the week in similar fashion to how we traded much of last week, which is a choppy trade with little noteworthy changes. The 50-day moving average has kept a lid on things recently and will continue to be looked at as a pivot area, coming in near 442 this morning. If the Bulls can clear that hurdle, we could see it encourage additional upward momentum towards 447 1/2-450. On the flipside, support comes in near 435 which represents previous resistance, the recent low end of the range, and the 20-day moving average.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 447 1/2-450****
Pivot: 441 3/4-444 1/2
Support: 431 1/2-435*, 421-422
Fundamental Notes
- Early estimates come in near 91.8 million acres of corn.
- Markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday.
Fund Positioning
- Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that Funds were net buyers of roughly 13k futures/options contracts, the bulk of that being short covering. That trims their net short position to 242,988 contracts. Broken down that is 171,123 longs VS 414,111 shorts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
- Below is a look at price averages for December corn, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Though we believe we can see prices firm from these levels, we would urge Producers to temper the expectations, given the current balance sheet.
Soybeans
Technicals (May)
May soybeans broke lower in Friday’s trade, but it wasn’t enough to do any serious technical damage. April options expiration may have played a role in price action through last week. This week attention will be on the quarterly stocks and prospective plantings report at the end of the week, not to mention it is the end of month and end of quarter. If the weakness picks back up, we would look for support near 1175-1181 to be tested. We would view this as a buy-zone on the first test as it could represent a good risk/reward setup.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1212 3/4-1216, 1240 1/2, 1250-1252***
Pivot: 1198-1205 1/2
Support: 1175-1181, 1161-1167**
Fundamental Notes
- The average estimate for soybean acres comes in near 86.5 million.
- Markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday.
Fund Positioning
- Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of roughly 7k contracts, nearly all of which was short covering. That trims their net short position down to 148,339 futures/options contracts. Broken down that is 56,166 longs VS 204,505 shots.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
- Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages..
Wheat
Technicals (May)
May Chicago wheat futures had an impressive end to last week’s trade which spilled into strength to start this week as prices have traded to their highest levels in about three weeks. With prices moving above trendline resistance that has opened the door for a run at our next resistance pocket 563-570, which prices have tested but failed against so far. 550-555 is the pocket the Bulls want to defend to keep the near-term momentum in their favor.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 563-570, 595 3/4-600, 608 1/2-611**
Pivot: 550-555
Support: 525**
Fundamental Notes
- The average analyst estimates for wheat acres come in near 47.3 million.
- Markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday.
Fund Positioning
- Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed little change in the Funds net positioning, holding a net short of 80,570 futures/options contracts. Broken down that is 80,721 longs VS 161,291 shorts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
- Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn’t the most friendly time of year.
