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Live Cattle
Technicals (June-M)
June live cattle futures broke lower on Friday on what could have been a round of profit taking ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report. That report showed On Feed at 101.3%, that was within the range of expectations and just fractionally above than the average estimate of 100.9%. Placements came in at 109.7%, that was above the upper end of estimates and 3.3% above the average estimate. Marketings came in at 103.4%, this was within the range of expectations and just .7% below the average estimate. All in all, the report had a bearish tilt to it which may add some follow-through pressure to start this week’s trade. A retest of the low end of the recent range and the 50-day moving average is not out of the question, that comes in near 180. As mentioned for the last several weeks, this isn’t a historically friendly time of year for live cattle, see seasonal chart below.
Resistance: 185.85-186.625*, 189.05
Pivot: 182.20
Support: 179.825-180.625**, 177.10
Seasonal Tendencies (June Live Cattle)
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). Seasonally we start to see June futures soften up, but if you’ve been watching cattle at all over the last year you know that seasonals tendencies tend to have had a lower correlation this year.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Fund positioning was little changed, holding a net long position of 62,391 futures/options contracts. Broken down that is 84,973 longs VS 22,582 shorts.
Feeder Cattle
Technicals (April- J)
April feeder cattle futures rejected trendline resistance and the 20-day moving average in the back half of last week’s trade which may have added pressure to prices, retesting the 50-day moving average (red line in chart below) for the first time since January 11th. This price action puts our 4-star support pocket in play to start this week’s trade, that comes in from 247.15-248.00.
Resistance: 256.90** 260.65-260.80***
Pivot: 252.60 253.85
Support: 247.15-248.00****
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s for May Feeder Cattle (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). Historically, this isn’t the best time to get supper bulled up on Feeder Cattle, but time will tell.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Funds hold a net long position of 11,453 futures/options contracts.
Lean Hogs
Technicals (April- J)
April lean hogs are threatening a break below trendline support which could open the door for a further decline into our next support pocket, 82.80-83.35. A break and close below that pocket could accelerate the selling pressure from a purely technical standpoint.
Resistance: 89.00-89.05**
Pivot: 85.50-86.05
Support: 82.80-83.35****
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s for June lean hogs (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds little changed from the previous week, holding a net long position of 62,877 contracts. Looking back at historical holdings, this is on the larger side of things.
